On this day, 65 years ago the United States was attack by Japan on Pearl Harbor. The following day Franklin Delano Roosevelt addressed the nation:

Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 a date which will live in infamy the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.

The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific.

(more…)

Another title I was thinking about, “The New Prius, Sustainable Seafood”.

Boris Worm, a marine biologist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada has been studying “global catch” data for more then 50 years with a team of 13 researchers in four countries and has come to the conclusion by the middle of this century there will be no fish left to catch in our oceans. Time Magazine

Stephen Palumbi, a Stanford University marine biologist concurs by saying “None of us regular working folk are going to be able to afford seafood […] it’s going to be too rare and too expensive. (more…)

The chemical bomb has a name, Mubtakkar, and according to the author of “The One Percent Doctrine”, Ron Suskind, the delivery system is a “widely available combination of chemicals-sodium cyanide, which is used as rat poison and metal cleanser, and hydrogen, which is everywhere. The combination of the two creates hydrogen cyanide, a colorless, highly volatile liquid that is soluble and stable in water”

Suskind continues on to elaborate in an exclusive Time Magazine Book Excerpt titled “The Untold Story of Al-Qaeda’s Plot to Attack the Subways”

It’s a canister with two interior containers: sodium cyanide is in one; a hydrogen product, like hydrochloric acid, in the other; and a fuse breaks the seal between them. The fuse can be activated remotely as bombs are triggered by cell phones-breaking the seal, creating the gas which is then released.

The Mubtakkar is a chemical device similar to Zyklon B which was used by the Nazis in the gas chambers of their concentration camps yet it can be designed in a cylinder about the size of a paint can.

Last week Times deputy Washington bureau chief, Mark Thompson asked Suskind “What possibly be gained by describing the mubtakkar device to the public?” with Suskind responding

All of the leading terrorism experts are clear on one thing: that in terms of protecting America, we almost never going to know a place or a time of an attack. So there are plenty of people in the government who feel that this [method] is something that the American people ought to know about. If they know what it looks like, they might be able to spot it if they see it.

The excerpt provides some excellent information in the inner workings of al-Qaeda and Washington. My only concern after having read it I will never be able look at those paint cans sitting in my garage the same way again.

(Why This War Is Good)

How bad is your local news? I live in the second largest city in the United States and our local news here is amazingly silly. Then again, they are catering to a mass audience and as the old saying goes, the masses are asses.

One of the main reasons for keeping this blog was for me to force myself into tackling ideas, policies, society, science, religion or whatever else there is in the world that deserves more attention then the two talking head actors from our local news provider.

I am starting to see quite a few more regulars coming back to my blog and I have to admit it is very nice. I would like to say you have caught me at a very interesting time.

You ask, “Shandy, what is so interesting about this time in your life?”

Well for one thing, for the longest time I belonged to the cable news ass club. You know what I mean; I’m too good to watch local news but yet I am still watching talking heads go at it on my favorite “smart” cable news shows.

Something happened over the course of the past 10 years of watching the news as I went from watching the news and having to form my own opinions to watching the news and having the ideas spoon fed to me.

This also goes with listening to the local talk radio. I used to say I belong to this camp because I like 68% of what they have to say but I don’t have time to really understand the issues so let me tune in on the car ride to the office and let so & so tell me how it really is.

I started to see a huge problem with this approach. I am not sure but I think they call this Group Think. I would be at parties or family get-togethers and I would hear someone proclaim to be in my camp and we would buddy up and I would hear someone else proclaim to be in another camp and all of those people would buddy up and we would all jump around and sing “when you’re a jet, you’re a jet…”.

No, seriously though it’s the season for political debates and when these buddy systems occurs I am always taken back when the people who proclaimed to be in my camp are regurgitating the same information I had heard on the cable news channels yet they had no personal connection to the ideas they were spitting out. This goes for both camps! I woke a few years after 9’11 to a society of little talking heads running around pushing sound bite policies.

Maybe I just woke up. Shandy, get to the point!!!

What the hell is going on with our government? We just took out the main man behind the man who we all thought is the main man because the real main man is not alive since the tapes are all dated… Argh! So confusing! Either way…

My parents feel I have become a moralist. I want what’s right!

If being in Iraq is the right thing for this country then why do so many people disagree? If being in Iraq is not the right thing, then why do so many people disagree?

Why do I have to be in a camp when I do not agree 100% with their policies? There was a time before my time when people used to feel good about their administration. This was a time before I thought about these kinds of issues.

Lucky for me I come from an educated family and I also married into an educated family. Everyone around me is all very smart when it comes to knowing who is who in government and what the real issues are. Which is why it is so mind blowing to me how my two families could disagree 100% about every major issue yet make articulate and educated points based on fact and reason. (We are very big in our families about making a person fight for their opinions and make sure it is based on logic, not rhetoric.)

I am all for discourse especially when it is followed through with passion, but I must ask the question; don’t we have a duty as a leading nation to ensure the world is a stable place? Friends and families disagreeing with policy is one thing but nation’s whose ideals are at extreme ends of each other is catastrophic!

I am the grandson of a man who fought totalitarianism first hand with tanks and all. I am the son of a man who spent his whole childhood playing in the bombed out neighborhoods of London. As a child I spent holidays with friends and older relatives from the old countries who had tattoos with numbers on their arms. It was an issue we never raised as kids but we could see even at such a young age by looking into their eyes across the table as we said our holiday prayers what dictatorship had done to their lives.

What the hell do I know? Is it about gas and about big multinational corporations? It could be. But when we have a growing population in one part of the world who passionately and violently despises other parts of the world for what ever reasons, history has already shown us what’s to come.

When I was a kid in grade school I was small and had a smart ass mouth so I got pushed around a lot. There was one particular bully who had started to make my life rough for me.

I had learned two ways to handle someone bullying me around. My mother used to tell me to just ignore him and if I did he would grow tired of me and go away. My father used to say, walk up to him at lunchtime in front of all of his friends and break his nose. Just smack him one real good and they will all leave you alone.

My father comes from a place that when he was a young teenager other boys were regurgitating their parents anti-Semitism and he had to make it clear at the time no one would push him around. He really had no choice.

But when I was a child, times were different and I chose to follow my mother’s ways. It was a peaceful approach and I did not risk getting my ass kicked. So for a few weeks I ignored the bully and all of his buddies but it only made things worse.

I was isolated by my own friends for not standing my ground and became a pariah to my class. Finally one day we were all playing dodge ball and I became their target. I finally had enough of their abuse and caught one of the handballs in mid flight. I ran right up to the bully, (crossing the line and cheating) and pelted him right in the face with the ball. When he grabbed his nose in shock I kicked him in his nuts. When he fell over, I gleefully hocked a nice size bit of phlegm on him.

I am proud to report; I earned some respect that day.

I am still confused as to how we should handle our Middle East problems. I do believe IF EXECUTED CORRECLTY that us controlling Iraq is the right play but obviously this has become one big quagmire.

Over the past few years I wanted to get a better understanding as to what was going through the minds of the WWII axis of evil’s leaders. Additionally I wanted to know what was going through America, England and Frances minds. After completing reading tons of history on the topic it became evident to me millions of lives would have been saved if the decisions on behalf of the major European nations (especially England) were to stand up and fight. They did not.

There are dozens of logical reasons why so many countries capitulated and as we all know now, we saw that this capitulation had created an unstoppable violent regime.

It took a new administration in England and the force of the United States to stand up and put a stop to the growing regime. Tens of millions of lives were lost, countries were literally destroyed, and other countries went bankrupt.

Are we facing this same type of situation? The leader of Iran got on TV and said they were going to blow Israel off the map. Other countries that have no belief in civil liberties and democracy are building bombs that can wipe out cities from afar. Can they do it today no, but how about in a decade?

Hitler wrote Mein Kampf in the year 1925, years before he got into power. In the book he talks about his master plan to change the world and goes into detail about how he will achieve it with a non violent appearance, just evil genius political manipulation. At the time of release and even into several years of his Chancellorship his plans were thought of as so outlandish no one took them seriously.

He started to wage his war on terror twelve years later.

How do you decide when it is time to buy and sell your stocks?

The first time I really started to question the various strategies behind buying and selling stock came about 8 years ago.

It was in the mid-to-late 1990’s and I had a great job with IBM Global Services that had me flying all around the country playing the character of a Big Blue consultant. I just happened to be in town for a few days when I received a phone call from an entrepreneurial friend of mine who offered me an opportunity to take over the role of Chief Technology Officer for his small Los Angeles based ISP.

The money offered paid much less then what I had been earning with IBM, but for what it did not pay in cash it paid in stock. To make a long story short, I joined the ISP and after a year or so we ended up being acquired by a larger ISP and through a series of multiple M&A’s the stock I owned ended up being traded on the open NASDAQ.

It was a very exciting time for everyone as we were all watching the values of our stocks rise on a daily basis. There was this sense of euphoria in the air as everyone around had become rich overnight. Stories of new start up high tech companies and venture capital money were permeating in everyone’s minds. Companies appeared to be going public left, right and center and somehow we all seemed to be in the day trading business as if we were professional stock brokers.

This was first time in my life when I was forced to pay attention to Wall Street and I really had no clue as to what I was doing. I decided I should get a better understanding of how stocks worked by picking up a few basic books on the topic.

At the height of the dot com boom things were going really well as I started to place buy orders in other emerging areas such as Global Crossing, Ibeam and several other infrastructure and media companies.

For a while things looked really good but the tides started to turn. Interest rates were on the rise and we were seeing many of our dot-com clients closing shop. Panic started to set-in as many of us were checking our online portfolios incessantly.

Months went on to pass and we came to realize we had come to an end of an era. Companies were dropping off NASAQ at a rate faster then many of us could comprehend and I was rushing around trying to figure out what the hell was going on.

I had bigger concerns as well. There were restrictions placed on my ISP stock preventing me from selling it for a few more months. As I was witnessing the bottom falling out of the market all I could do was watch the value of my stock dwindle down to nothing. It was a horrific experience for me and most of my buddies at that time.

This all came to fruition in about 2001. It was around about this time I decided I would not buy another piece of stock until I had a more thorough education.

I took such a nasty beating that it took about a year or so for me to open and discuss my stock trading experience with anyone. I was really quiet about the whole thing until I met this gentleman who was in his mid 80’s and had nearly 50 years experience as a stock broker.

We slowly got to know each other and after talking with him for a few months we really found we could talk for hours. For the first time I found a mentor who could teach me a few things related to buying and selling stocks that I had not learned my self.

Over the course of the next several months this man had showed me his collection of 100’s of books documenting 1000’s of stocks trends going back nearly 50 years. I began to take a real interest again and he was very willing to show me how he analyzed stocks before buying them.

He told me, that it took him several years to really get good at perfecting the method he used and the educational curve was very difficult. But he said the rewards had been amazing for him. He had outperformed everyone in his brokerage firm utilizing these methods and if I was serious, I should pick up a book called Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert Edwards and John Magee.

The ideas behind their methods were based on the fact that an investor could look at past trends of a stock by analyzing the company’s high’s and low’s on its stock charts. This is referred to as Charting.

This method is really famous for folks who have technical minds and are comfortable with the notion of having a methodology they could rely on a daily basis. Once becoming proficient with charting, an investor should be able to look at the stocks performance over its 5 to 10 year span and feel confident with making a proper assessment.

I picked up the book and I won’t lie, the study was quite difficult. It took me hours to understand the most basics of concepts and I completely felt like I had been reading a foreign language.

Another couple of years had passed and in about 2003 I had been talking with a good friend of mine who was a huge Warren Buffett fan. We sat around late one night talking about Technical Trends vs. Warren Buffett’s methods and I was really blown away with what my buddy had learned from following Warren Buffet.

I told him about some stocks I had been eyeing and he asked me straight-out if I was willing to invest a large percentage of my money into it. I sat back and said, “Bro, the wise thing to do is to diversify, everyone knows that”. He said, “Bro, Warrant Buffett, probably the greatest investor of our time says that if you believe a company is going to be good then don’t dick around. Go Big… Only invest your money in companies that you understand and when you find a winner, put a significant percentage of your money into it. If you are not sure, then hang on to your money until you have a clear picture.”

I thought to myself this way of investing was very risky. We spent the remainder of the evening going over the various way Buffet analysis a company before buying stock in it.

Buffett uses a method based on his mentor’s formulas (Benjamin Graham) and it all has to do with the principle of focal investing. Treat buying any stock as if you were planning on buying the whole company.

I decided to pick up a few books on Buffett and Graham and I had learned that their methods for finding the right stocks were completely different to the methods of Technical Analysis. They based their decisions of buying and selling on simple business fundamentals.

They would look at the financial statements; they would study the competitive markets. They would look at the company’s management team and they would only buy stock in a company for the long term.

For them, it makes no difference if they waited a month or a year buy stocks because they know when they do buy it’s for the long term.

They don’t care about fancy charts and mathematical gobbledygook. They only buy stock in companies who operate in industries they understand and their long term future looks good.

In one of Buffetts books it discusses 10 principles to follow when evaluating a company and there is one principle I have taken to heart. Never invest in anything unless you’re willing to commit to it for the long term.

So now I have a basic understanding of two investment methods to follow and I am eager to start perfecting one of them. I figure it will take me a bit of time to really become proficient so I want to be sure I choose the right one.

Is Technical Analysis the way to go or follow Buffett’s methods and study the fundamentals?

In last weeks post Do Not Blame Big Oil So Fast I had responded to “Are high prices really a bad thing?” with the answer, the short term will be rough but Free Market Enterprise should spawn alternative fuel sources.

Written in the current May issue of Scientific America is an article titled Pumping Coal. It states the United States has one quarter of the world’s coal reserves. It talks about a method called Coal to Liquid where they can convert waste coal (50% of most coal is wasted) to synthetic diesel.

What I thought was worth mentioning is that the developers of this technology have been searching for financing for over a decade. The problem was the price of crude oil was going for $30 to $40 a barrel and the price of Coal to Liquid cost around $54 a barrel. Well, the current price of oil now at $73.15 per barrel.

In this same issue of Scientific America, Chevron has a two page advertisement right in the front page saying “Russia, Iran and Qatar have 58% of the world’s natural gas reserves. The U.S. has 3%.”

The Pumping Coal article wrote

“Qatar and Nigeria are building gas-to-liquid plants, and Sasol estimates that by 2014, gas-to-liquid fuel may account for at least 5 percent of the global market. But the U.S. does not have nearly as much natural gas as coal. And considering the vast reserves in China, which is also considering the technology, coal-derived diesel seems likely to play a bigger role in helping to liberate some countries from dependence on oil imports.”

In response to this persons comment, “Exxon showed a 11% increase in profit from Q1 of last year. They had a profit of $8,000,000,000 in Q1 this year. Guess what…oil supply is higher then it has been in 8 years. It is price gouging plain and simple.”

The notion of Big Oil price gouging the world would assume they have solely focused on short term profits with out considering the colossal negative long term effects. Perhaps I am missing something and if I am I am very open to understanding this point of view but I just do not see the logic in any company pricing their products so high as force the development of alternatives.

I do expect to start seeing many innovative ideas like such as Coal to Oil find its way to the open market. As this occurs Big Oil will have to certainly come up with new products that are competitively priced.

There seems to be a lot people who are really angry with BIG OIL yet no one appears to really know the real reasons as to why the price of oil continues to rise. As I was reading various columns published by several leading news sources and watching major news stations I can see why most Americans are steamed at Big Oil.

Over the past few weeks I’ve had some questions regarding this current situation and attempted to address it via this blog. But this is now my 3^rd attempt at putting this post together. My first two had me being over zealous and thinking I could combine and explain why the price of oil is so high and how the general public is being manipulated by various political agendas through the use of major news entities. When completed, I was looking at a 12 page theses.

I will admit I was even bored reading that work so I chose to start again coming from a different direction. After taking a day off from this post I made the decision to only create a list of the major questions I had regarding the principle issue, the current price of oil. I will try to strip away all political agendas and be as factual as possible.

Could the answers to these questions be wrong, yes! But I feel pretty good that I now have a better understanding of this issue and I can explain why we are all ‘taking it’ at the pump!

1. Why are the oil companies making huge record breaking profits?

“Energy company profits, though huge in absolute terms, are in line with those for other industries. Earnings from oil and gas companies averaged 5.8 cents on the dollar, compared with 5.5 cents for all industries in the five years that ended with the third quarter of 2005.” Los Angeles Time, Business

Over the past few years I have heard this quote from multiple sources on TV and in print. I would really like to see a graph representing the profits big oil has made over the past 25 years accounting for inflation. It would interest me to see if oil and gas companies were averaging much lower and now in recent years achieve an average of 5.8 cents.

2. What dictates the price of oil?

“Oil companies do not single-handedly determine the price of oil. The price of oil is set on the crude oil futures market. Simply put, these prices are affected by supply and demand because, at present, oil trades in a global commodity market where increased demand or reduced supply in one place instantly translates into price shifts everywhere. A variety of publicly available information sources show that supply is relatively static at the moment, while world demand continues to grow as economies grow.” Energy Bulletin

For more information on how Futures Speculation works, read Predicting Futures Oil Prices. Oil Drum

3. Are we seeing record high numbers?

“The current price of oil would have to “rise above $90 to exceed the all-time high’s set a quarter century ago when supplies became tight in the aftermath of a revolution in Iran and a war between Iraq and Iran.” Los Angeles Times, Business

In my 31 years I have never seen the actual digits posted on gas stations reach these current high numbers but reporters must take inflation into consideration when reporting “record highs”.

4. How come the price of gas keeps going up & up?

Here is where I think most of confusion is created. You can read a dozen articles on this subject and get two dozen different answers. Here are two sources who I felt nailed it. (There are other reasons, but these give us the big picture.)

“The geopolitical situation is volatile, and an astute citizen may notice that every time there is news from Nigeria or Iran, the price of oil goes up because of the potential and real effects of these situations on world oil supply. Again, oil traders are fearful that the supply will not remain stable forever.

Countries like China and India are industrializing at a great pace, and while we are accustomed to obtaining oil at a comfortable quantity and price, it will be impossible (and immoral) to deny similar resources to these countries. China is working furiously to secure new oil supplies, and they’re content to negotiate with countries we’re reluctant to deal with, like Iran and the Sudan.” Energy Bulletin

“Gasoline inventories typically decrease this time of year as refiners shut down their plants to perform maintenance ahead of the summer driving season. And oil traders typically point to the decreases as reason for concern about summertime supplies, a routine that, more often than not, sends futures prices higher.

That said, there is additional worry about summer gasoline supplies because of the prospect of tight supplies of ethanol, which is needed in increasing amounts as refiners phase out their use of methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, which has been found to contaminate drinking water.” MSNBC

5. Are we witnessing another Enron type scandal?

It appears our government feels we have another possible Enron scandal in the making. Governor Schwarzenegger was quoted as saying “we must not rule out the possibility of market manipulation, price gouging or unfair business practices employed by oil companies.” Los Angeles Times, Business

“The first thing to do is to make sure Americans are treated fairly at the gas pump,” Bush said. ‘This administration is not going to tolerate manipulation.” Bloomberg

“The administration sent letters yesterday to state attorneys general urging them to vigorously enforce state law ‘against any anti-competitive, anti-consumer conduct in the petroleum industry.’

Consumers around the nation have expressed concerns about what they have perceived as anti-competitive or otherwise unfair conduct by the world’s major oil companies,” said Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales and Federal Trade Commission Chairman Deborah Platt Majoras.” WP Herald

Even though Bush, Schwarzenegger and many others are making statements alluding to the fact there could be possible price manipulations taking place, I am unable to find anything hard hitting which has any kernel of truth to it.

“Past investigations of price gouging have concluded that ‘the industry is reasonably competitive and the explanation for price increases lies in other causes,’ said Bert Foer, president of the American Antitrust Institute. The chance that investigators will find anything new ‘strikes me as fairly low,” WP Herald

6. Who should we really blame?

Well, the fact is the reason for the high price of oil is simple supply and demand. But some government officials feel that the mergers and acquisitions of big oil over the past several years have created an uncompetitive marketing place.

“Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is backing legislation to toughen antitrust laws relating to oil company mergers, and says a tax on extraordinary — windfall — profits could help cut fuel prices.”

Here is my quick short list of people we could try to blame, but I think it is pointless.

• We could blame Bush for invading Iraq and creating a politically unstable environment.

• We could blame India, China and Korea for coming of age.

• We could blame environmental policy makers. Creating clean oil is not a cheap operation.

• We could blame the speculators and market makers.

• We could blame geologists with their intention to create global awareness that the wells are running low.

“Oil is a worldwide commodity, with worldwide influences on its price. There is no single culprit in the rising price of oil, but the fact is that blaming the oil companies themselves is myopic and punishing them is counterproductive.” Conservative Voice

7. Why doesn’t the US Government step in and help?

“”I’m a capitalist, but I think we’re being extorted,” said Ron Safier, 72, an executive recruiting company owner in Los Angeles, as he put $46.94 worth of gas into his Toyota sedan. Oil companies “need to be brought to their knees” by government intervention, he says.” USA Today

“Bush renewed his call for greater domestic oil production, including in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; the construction of new U.S. refineries; and new tax breaks to anyone who buys a hybrid vehicle such as Toyota’s Prius this year. Currently, only the first 60,000 vehicles produced by each manufacturer are covered by the tax break, which tops out at $3,400.” Washington Post

“Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who appeared with Specter, said gasoline prices ‘would come down within a matter of days’ if President Bush said he would support a windfall profit tax on oil companies.

Such a tax would backfire, warns Wachovia economist Jason Schenker: ‘If you tax the oil companies for producing, then they are less likely to produce,’ he says.” USA Today

8. Are high prices really a bad thing?

I have a quick response to this. Short term it hits us in our wallets and makes one second guess commuting unless one has to. In the long term, COME ON FREE MARKET ENTERPRISE!

Over the past few years cars have gotten bigger and hybrids are still a novelty to most people. We don’t realize how much influences we have as consumers. The answers is not with government helping us but we should look towards our self’s. We bought into the system and have become reliant and now the rest of the world is catching up with demand.

9. Are we really running out of oil?

I have saved this question for last because it is highly controversial. The prices of oil are on the rise because speculators are predicting massive shortage. But according to an article in this weeks Economist, “Steady as she goes” this issue makes a point of saying there is plenty of oil in the ground for years to come.

It seems there is no common consensus for how much oil is left in the Earth. But the article does mention with the help of new technologies and setting the right political climate we should be able to dig in areas that were once impossible.

Dear France, this is my first personal letter to you so please excuse my western capitalistic American arrogance. I thought it was about time I said something regarding the state of your affairs. Seriously, what in gods name are you doing to your country? Your are a global power for Christ sakes, start acting like it. Get your house in order or my generation will be forced to disregard everything you have to say on global policy.

It is not okay three fourths of your young students want to become civil servants because it promises them a life time of security! Is this what your citizens are protesting about?

Have you not learned anything from history. Capitalism has proven to work pretty well. We all understand it may not be a perfect system but at least three fourths of our American youth aren’t growing up with the intention of securing jobs with the United States Postal Office.

You are a country with such great potential. Look towards parts of your private sector as they have produced some thriving global businesses. I even use many of your products on a daily basis.

There are some things you need to work on ASAP. First, tell your country folk communism is not that great. Yes, it offers security but be honest with them. Explain to them your Debt to GDP ratio is not in check and in a few years your country will go broke with this welfare policy. Then you will be stuck with a bunch of lazy country men who wont know how to sell a free loaf of bread to a starving person.

Start with the young! Feed them Happy Meals (in proportion of course, you don’t want to start looking like us fat Americans). Tell them all about the legendary tales of Sam Walton, Howard Schultz and Ray Kroc. You are already buying cloths from Wal-Mart, drinking our coffee and eating our burgers! At least educate them on the wealth these entrepreneurs created for them self’s and the enormous amount of job opportunities they created for this planet.

Lastly, what the hell are you doing cutting your work hours down by 5 hours a week? You think now is the time to let everyone work 35 hours a week? Seriously, don’t you know anything about the work ethic in India and China?

I don’t know France, we have some serious concerns about your behavior. I am starting to think you belong on the short bus.